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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 60-120 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |