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Criterion
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration of the Force Field Analysis working structure.
Decision Making
Force Field Analysis
Purposedifferent
A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighHighLow
Timedifferent
2-4 h1-4 Wochen1-4 h or multiple rounds45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-86-30 Experten4-12 Experten3-12
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesForce Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationExpertsForecasting
ChangeDecisionStrategy
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