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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |