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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Bucket System |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |