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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |