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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Agile Bucket System |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |