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Criterion
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Bucket System.
Agile
Bucket System
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
Purposedifferent
A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
2-4 h30-90 min1-4 Wochen15-60 min je Zyklus
Participantsdifferent
3-83-126-30 Experten1-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsBucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split CandidatesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
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