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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 45-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |