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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 45-90 min | 2-6 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 2-8 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |