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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-3 h | 45-60 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | SensemakingDecisionRationale | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | RiskDecisionSensemaking |