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| Criterion |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | ChangeDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |