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Criterion
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min45-60 min20–45 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
3-82-8Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
GrowthRetentionConversion
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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