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Criterion
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of two people facing each other, speech bubbles and an open interview notebook.
UX Research
User Interviews
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.When teams derive needs only from assumptions and real motives are missing, user interviews give direct access to behavior and meaning. Conversations from the target group's everyday life make patterns, tensions, and open questions solidly visible.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMediumLow
Timedifferent
2-6 h30–60 min per interview45-60 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-81 participant per interview2-82-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsInterview Notes, Themes, Insight SummaryAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskRoot causeSafety
QualitativeResearchCustomerDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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