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| Criterion |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-6 h | 20–45 min | 10-20 min daily | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 1 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskRoot causeSafety | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |