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Criterion
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
2-6 h15-45 min2-6 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
3-81-83-103-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
RiskRoot causeSafety
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
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