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| Criterion |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 2-6 h | 60-180 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 4-20 | Nutzertraffic | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskRoot causeSafety | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | RiskDecisionSensemaking |