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Criterion
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowHighMedium
Timedifferent
2-6 h45-90 min2-6 h45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-82-83-102-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation ActionsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tags1 shared
RiskRoot causeSafety
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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