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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |