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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration for Affinity Estimation.
Agile
Affinity Estimation
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMediumHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min1-4 h or multiple rounds30-90 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
2-84-12 Experten3-123-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesAffinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear ItemsFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationExpertsForecasting
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
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