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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |