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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |