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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 20-35 min | 45-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-5 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |