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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-60 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |