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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 20–45 min | 20-35 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 1-5 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |