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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min20–45 min1-4 Wochen45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional group1-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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