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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |