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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Opportunity Solution Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-2 h Setup, laufend | 45-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Opportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning Log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |