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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Agile NoEstimates |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | laufend | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-12 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationForecastingFlow | LeanStartupValidationMVP | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |