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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 45-90 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |