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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of Hooked Model with its method-specific working model.
Growth
Hooked Model
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 minMultiple workshops over several weeks45-90 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-82-83-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsHooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics checkAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
GrowthBehaviorRetention
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
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