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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Innovation Lean Startup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | LeanStartupValidationMVP |