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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 60-120 min | 45-60 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |