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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLowMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min2-4 h20-35 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-81-52-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsTest Card with a pre-set thresholdAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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