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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Innovation Design Thinking |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | For complex user problems with an uncertain cause, the method connects observation, interpretation, and experiment into a learning cycle. It keeps the focus on real needs and avoids premature solution language. This produces robust decisions for product and service. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1 Tag bis mehrere Wochen | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-10 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Problem Statement, Prototype, Test Learnings | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | InnovationPrototypeResearch | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |