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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |