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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLowLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min1-4 Wochen1-2 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-86-30 Experten2-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning reportAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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