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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 90-180 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |