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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |