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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min30-90 min2-4 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-81-63-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsDecision Tree, Option Map, Assumption ListFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
DecisionTreeOptions
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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