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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Context Map workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Domain Modeling
Context Map
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When several contexts need to talk to each other, it makes their relationships and dependencies legible. It helps sort integration pressure and responsibilities across system boundaries.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min1-3 h1-4 Wochen45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-86-30 Experten2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsContext Map, Integration Patterns, Boundary NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
Domain-Driven DesignBoundariesStrategy
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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