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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | Half day | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |