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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 20–45 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |