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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |