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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Funnel Analysis workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
Funnel Analysis
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When many visitors or users drop off along the way, the reason behind the number often stays hidden. Funnel Analysis exposes these transitions and makes visible exactly where the path collapses.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min45-90 min1-3 h1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-82-81-51-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFunnel report, Drop-off analysis, Optimization hypothesesExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AnalyticsConversionGrowth
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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