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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 45-60 min | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |