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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-60 min | 20-35 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |