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Selected:Evaporating Cloud ARID (Active Reviews for Intermediate Designs)Delphi Method Assumption Mapping

Criterion	Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud	Architecture ARID (Active Reviews for Intermediate Designs)	Decision Making Delphi Method	Product Discovery Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent	The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.	ARID examines how well developers can work with a technical design. It focuses on a part of the system that can still be revised, between the architecture overview and the detailed specification.	When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.	When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent	Medium	Medium	High	Medium
Timedifferent	60-120 min	2–4 h review as a planning range; preparation and evaluation additional	1-4 Wochen	45-60 min
Participantsdifferent	2-8	Designers, developers as users, and facilitation	6-30 Experten	2-8
Formatdifferent	Workshop	Workshop + async	Async	Workshop + async
Outputdifferent	Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments	Prioritized development tasks, Jointly produced code or pseudocode, Observed difficulties and open design questions, Proposed design revisions	Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes	Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap	Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking	ArchitectureEngineeringFeedbackValidationTasks	ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy	AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation

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