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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Bucket System |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-10 | 1-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |