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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A paper-based illustration representing North Star Metric with its core stages and visible working result.
Growth
North Star Metric
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When product teams track many metrics, the view of the actual customer outcome easily gets lost. A North Star Metric bundles growth, usage, and value contribution into one signal that makes the system's direction visible.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min1-2 h45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-203-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsNorth Star metric, Input metric tree, Measurement cadenceAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
GrowthMetricsAlignmentRetention
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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A paper-based illustration representing Pirate Metrics (AARRR) with its core stages and visible working result.
Growth
Pirate Metrics AARRR
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test