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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Counter Metrics with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
Counter Metrics
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
5-20 min45-60 min30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-82-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingCounter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments
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Paper illustration of KPI Tree with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
KPI Tree
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing